Jobs fall as unemployment edges up to 4.5%
Employment falls 15.8k in July, a downside surprise pushing unemployment to a near five-year high. Private wage growth keeps cooling, and the AUD tops 0.71 on broad US dollar weakness.
Read the full updateHome values fall 0.7% as the correction broadens
National home values fall for a third straight month, with the correction now touching five of eight capital cities. The trade surplus rebounds sharply on gold and iron ore.
Read the full updateHeadline inflation slows to 3.8%, core still sticky
June CPI eases to a five-month low, but housing and services inflation keep accelerating. Building approvals rebound on units, and the AUD slips below 0.695.
Read the full updateInflation expectations ease to 4.7%, core still sticky
Consumer inflation expectations fall sharply, but the trimmed mean hits its fastest annual pace since September 2024. Cracks are forming beneath a headline-strong labour market.
Read the full updateRBA holds at 4.35%, keeps hikes on the table
A unanimous RBA Board holds the cash rate but hardens its tone on future hikes. Government unveils a $3.8bn CGT reform package, and the AUD firms above 0.70 after a hawkish Fed decision.
Read the full updateRBA expected to hold, confidence lifts modestly
Markets expect the RBA to hold at its June meeting as Westpac trims its inflation peak forecast. National dwelling values push through a record $12.8 trillion.
Read the full updateData centres drive Q1, economy slows to 0.3%
Q1 GDP growth slows to its softest pace since Q2 2024 as data-centre investment masks broader weakness. The FWC lifts the minimum wage 4.75%, and the AUD holds below 0.715.
Read the full updateApril CPI eases to 4.2%, but core holds firm
Headline inflation undershoots as fuel excise relief kicks in, but trimmed mean lifts to 3.4%. Capex surges on data centres, June hike odds collapse to 5%, and the AUD holds 0.71.
Read the full updateUnemployment jumps to 4.5% — the highest since late 2021
April jobs surprise to the downside as employment contracts 18.6k. Home lending pulls back in Q1. AUD slips to 0.71 as June hike bets fade.
Read the full updateBudget 2026–27: smaller deficits and a housing tax shake-up
The Budget banks commodity windfalls into an $8.5bn smaller deficit and reforms negative gearing, the CGT discount and trust taxation. Wages hold at 0.9%qtr.
Read the full updateRBA hikes to 4.35% in 8–1 vote; June finely balanced
Third consecutive hike on a wider 8–1 margin. Markets price only ~20% odds of a June follow-up. Westpac sees inflation tilted to the upside through 2026. AUD touches a four-year high.
Read the full updateInflation reaccelerates, but the details matter
Headline CPI back at 4.6% on rebate roll-off, but trimmed mean eased to 3.3%. Markets pull forward easing expectations and price a Q3 cut.
Read the full updateLabour market holds steady, but risks are building
Unemployment at 4.3%, hours worked at a record high. Oil at $97/bbl on Middle East tensions; AUD slips on softer commodity sentiment.
Read the full updateInflation softens, but fuel shock looms
Feb CPI eased to 3.7% as housing inflation cooled. Cash rate at 4.10%, but oil up 40% YTD threatens the disinflation path.
Read the full updateRBA tightens policy as risks become more complex
A 5–4 vote lifts the cash rate to 4.10%. Oil-shock scenarios sketched as high as $130/bbl. Borrowers feel the squeeze on serviceability.
Read the full updateRate outlook shifts as oil shock lifts rate expectations
Markets push the projected peak cash rate up to 4.35%. Australia's $12 trillion housing market sits in focus as fixed-rate pricing repositions.
Read the full updateGrowth holds steady as demand and productivity improve
Q4 GDP up 0.8%, productivity up around 1%. Domestic demand resilient. RBA still on watch as services inflation lingers.
Read the full updateInflation edges higher in January; core holds steady
Headline CPI lifts to 3.8%, trimmed mean steady at 3.4%. Electricity up 18.5% as rebates roll off. AUD near three-year highs.
Read the full updateUnemployment remains at 4.1%, but participation is doing the work
Wages up 3.4% YoY, credit growth at its fastest pace since mid-2022. The headline hides the story; participation is the swing factor.
Read the full updateInflation isn’t done yet. Rate hike likely.
Q4 trimmed mean at 3.4% reinforces a February hike. All four major banks expect the cash rate to lift to 3.85%. AUD near three-year highs.
Read the full updateRBA policy watch: inflation data holds the casting vote
Unemployment falls to 4.1% on +65,000 jobs. February hike probability jumps from 27% to 56%. AUD reaches a 16-month high.
Read the full updateProgress, but not yet mission accomplished
First Market Movements of 2026. Annual inflation eased to 3.4% in November, the lowest reading since August. Direction encouraging, but the work isn’t done.
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