RBA hikes to 4.35% in 8–1 vote; June finely balanced
Third consecutive hike on a wider 8–1 margin. Markets price only ~20% odds of a June follow-up. Westpac sees inflation tilted to the upside through 2026. AUD touches a four-year high.
Read the full updateInflation reaccelerates, but the details matter
Headline CPI back at 4.6% on rebate roll-off, but trimmed mean eased to 3.3%. Markets pull forward easing expectations and price a Q3 cut.
Read the full updateLabour market holds steady, but risks are building
Unemployment at 4.3%, hours worked at a record high. Oil at $97/bbl on Middle East tensions; AUD slips on softer commodity sentiment.
Read the full updateInflation softens, but fuel shock looms
Feb CPI eased to 3.7% as housing inflation cooled. Cash rate at 4.10%, but oil up 40% YTD threatens the disinflation path.
Read the full updateRBA tightens policy as risks become more complex
A 5–4 vote lifts the cash rate to 4.10%. Oil-shock scenarios sketched as high as $130/bbl. Borrowers feel the squeeze on serviceability.
Read the full updateRate outlook shifts as oil shock lifts rate expectations
Markets push the projected peak cash rate up to 4.35%. Australia's $12 trillion housing market sits in focus as fixed-rate pricing repositions.
Read the full updateGrowth holds steady as demand and productivity improve
Q4 GDP up 0.8%, productivity up around 1%. Domestic demand resilient. RBA still on watch as services inflation lingers.
Read the full updateInflation edges higher in January; core holds steady
Headline CPI lifts to 3.8%, trimmed mean steady at 3.4%. Electricity up 18.5% as rebates roll off. AUD near three-year highs.
Read the full updateUnemployment remains at 4.1%, but participation is doing the work
Wages up 3.4% YoY, credit growth at its fastest pace since mid-2022. The headline hides the story; participation is the swing factor.
Read the full updateInflation isn’t done yet. Rate hike likely.
Q4 trimmed mean at 3.4% reinforces a February hike. All four major banks expect the cash rate to lift to 3.85%. AUD near three-year highs.
Read the full updateRBA policy watch: inflation data holds the casting vote
Unemployment falls to 4.1% on +65,000 jobs. February hike probability jumps from 27% to 56%. AUD reaches a 16-month high.
Read the full updateProgress, but not yet mission accomplished
First Market Movements of 2026. Annual inflation eased to 3.4% in November, the lowest reading since August. Direction encouraging, but the work isn’t done.
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